US Methodists Will Experience More Than a Downsizing
Twenty percent of churches, and counting, are leaving the denomination. What are some of George's insights?
US Methodists Will Experience More Than a Downsizing
Link to CT article: As Methodist Exits Hit 5,800, Some Churches Find Paths Blocked.
A dozen years ago I was consulting with a denomination’s national office — one totally unrelated to Methodists — about their future strategic direction. Following interviews with national staff I had a confidential conversation with the CEO. Part of my contract was to brief him each time I met with his staff and leaders.
In that conversation I told him I was concerned about a specific staff person who had been very open and transparent with me during our conversation. I felt like he was leading his area of work from the edge of the denomination. The network among whom he had the most influence acted like a “skunk works” within the denomination. I was not sure if long-term they saw themselves taking over the denomination, or splitting out from the denomination.
Fast forward to two years ago, and this staff person is one of the co-leaders of a new network splitting out of this denomination, and inviting churches from multiple denominations who are of similar doctrinal perspectives to join with them.
In five decades of consulting with denominational organizations in almost 50 different denominations in North America, I have see it all. I have learned many things. Nothing totally surprises me.
With that background, I look with great interest in what is happening with US Methodists. I have worked with churches, districts, and annual conferences among Methodists.
To begin, check out this article that appeared recently in Christianity Today and then read my insights — As Methodist Exits Hit 5,800, Some Churches Find Paths Blocked.
ForthTelling Innovation Insights
The number of churches leaving is currently almost 20 percent. When the number leaving reaches 21 percent or more it is a tipping point and neither the existing Methodists nor the new developing networks of Methodists will ever be the same. They will not be able to go back. They can only go forward to a new reality.
I predict over the next decade the number of churches who leave will reach or exceed 30 percent. If that happens then within two generations the cumulative total of active, participating, engaged participants in the churches who leave could be a greater total number than of the churches who stay.
The remaining Methodist Church — because we are deeply into a post-denominational era — must streamline their structure and transform their book of discipline to be a guiding document that is a centered set rather than a bounded set, or this will be one factor that will contribute to their continual decline as a denomination.
To experience growth in numbers — just to keep up with the pace of population growth in the US — both those who stay and those who leave must have an assertive emphasis on starting new churches. They must follow the strategic insights of two Methodists active in the last half of the 20th century — Ezra Earl Jones and Lyle E. Schaller — which includes a mandate for three percent net growth in the number of churches annually.
Both churches who stay and those who leave must shift how they prepare ministers for church service by reversing the pattern of theological education with some practical ministry experience to one of ministry preparation with enough of a theological framework and focus to lead churches in a faithful, effective, and innovative manner. Even finding enough clergy and other staff to serve churches will be a huge challenge unless there is a breakthrough in calling out those called of God into ministry service.
Both churches who stay and those who leave must shift the pattern of their ministry to connect with people born in 1983 or after. This was the year Motorola introduced the first mobile phone. The reality is that as a whole Methodist members are a very aging population. Without disruptive changes Methodists are on a slow death march. At the current pace, within another generation or so, the average age of a Methodist church member could be between 65 and 70 years old.
The denominational structure for the churches who stay will require rethinking the configuration of districts and annual conferences, full-time vs. co-vocational clergy, fields of churches served by one pastor. The structures must be more agile, and the leadership more flexible.
REMEMBER! As those who stay and those who leave move forward, the greatest competition is not one another, or other denominations. It is the network of churches known as non-denominational. That cluster is now the largest grouping of Protestant congregations by at least five to seven million members.
The number of Methodist congregations leaving the UMC denomination is now 6182 by the latest report I can find. This is now above 20% and headed toward a tipping point from which the denomination cannot go back. This does not include the congregations who are "Quiet Quitting".
Great analysis of the current "state of affairs" within Methodism. Your closing comment in REMEMBER! drew my attention. I was engaged in a non-denominational church planting situation in which the question was posed, "won't you be in competition with other area churches?" My response to that query was to say, "we're not in competition with other churches -- our only competition is the devil -- but we want to collaborate with other local congregations in increasing the light of Christ in this community, in hopes that the light of Christ will drive back the darkness... Do any of you think that we can have too much light in any one community?"